Global Trade Is Slowing to 1.9% in 2026. A New Book Explains How Conflict Rewrites the Economic Map
Global merchandise trade volumes grew 4.6% in 2025, well above what the World Trade Organization had expected. In its March 2026 report, as summarised by Ecofin Agency, the WTO forecast a sharp slowdown to 1.9% for 2026, and warned that if elevated oil prices persist because of conflict in the Middle East, growth could lose another 0.5 percentage points. The same report flags disrupted shipping routes and weaker tourism demand as channels of transmission. Trade, energy, security and sanctions are now one conversation, and few books treat them that way.
Economic Trends and Policy Responses in Times of Conflict and Global Instability, edited by Eleni Gavriil, Zakia Aqra and Georgios A. Deirmentzoglou of Neapolis University Pafos (IGI Global Scientific Publishing, September 2026, 562 pages), addresses that overlap across 15 chapters. They cover economic statecraft and sanctions, the economic triggers and aftermath of modern warfare, investment and FDI under conflict, trade fragmentation and global value chain reconfiguration, maritime trade, and energy chokepoints and food security through a case study of the Strait of Hormuz. Further chapters examine natural resources in occupied territories, Yemen, Russia under sanctions, and resilience in tourism and hospitality.
Where it helps right now
- Sanctions and policy design: the chapters on sanctions, countermeasures and the Russia–Ukraine conflict give legal and policy analysts a structured framework for assessing how economic tools are used as instruments of statecraft.
- Trade and supply-chain risk: the chapters on global value chains, maritime trade and the Strait of Hormuz support country-risk and logistics assessment when routes and energy prices are under pressure.
- Investment and sector resilience: the chapters on FDI, infrastructure influence and tourism-sector performance help investors and development agencies think through exposure to geopolitical shocks.
For university libraries supporting international political economy, international relations, economic law or maritime studies, the volume brings contributors from several countries and disciplines into a single reference. You can browse related titles in the Economics & Finance collection.
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Q&A
What does the WTO forecast for global trade in 2026?
In its March 2026 report, the WTO projected merchandise trade volume growth of 1.9% for 2026, down from 4.6% in 2025, with a possible further 0.5 percentage point reduction if high oil prices persist.
What topics does this book cover?
Economic statecraft and sanctions, modern warfare, investment and FDI under conflict, trade fragmentation, maritime trade, energy chokepoints and food security (the Strait of Hormuz), and resilience in tourism and hospitality, across 15 chapters.
Who are the editors?
Eleni Gavriil, Zakia Aqra and Georgios A. Deirmentzoglou, all at Neapolis University Pafos, working in international economic law, international relations and international entrepreneurship.
Who is it written for?
Graduate and doctoral students, economists and political economists, foreign policy practitioners, international organizations, development agencies and policymakers.
Where can I buy Economic Trends and Policy Responses in Times of Conflict and Global Instability?
It's available now from CLNZ Books, with worldwide shipping included in the price: order it here. Need help with delivery or ordering? See our FAQ and How to Order.