COP31 and the Producer's Dilemma: A New Legal Study of Petroleum in the Middle East and Africa
On 9 November 2026, COP31 opens in Antalya, Türkiye, with Australia steering the negotiations under an unprecedented hosting arrangement. The question that dominated COP30 in Belém — how the world transitions away from fossil fuels — is not a formal item on the agenda: countries failed to agree on a process last year, and Brazil is expected to publish only a voluntary roadmap. Outside the UN process, 57 countries met in Santa Marta, Colombia, from 24 to 29 April 2026 for the first conference dedicated to transitioning away from fossil fuels. Nigeria, where oil accounts for around 80% of exports, stated the producer's dilemma plainly: the question is not whether extraction should decline, but how to organise it.
That dilemma — how producer states manage the transition through law — is the subject of Peter Kayode Oniemola's new monograph, Petroleum, Energy Transition and Law: The Future of Petroleum in the Middle East and Africa, published by Routledge in July 2026 in its Research in Energy Law and Regulation series. Most energy transition literature is written from the side of importing economies. Oniemola, a Reader in the Faculty of Law at the University of Ibadan, with a PhD from the University of Aberdeen and advisory experience on Nigeria's oil and gas reform, writes from the side of the states whose budgets depend on upstream revenues. The book examines international climate change obligations, reviews the negotiating positions of Middle Eastern and African states, compares legal and policy approaches in each region in separate chapters, and closes with a proposal for a legal response to the reordering of petroleum's future.
For practitioners, the book offers three concrete uses: reviewing domestic petroleum legislation and licensing frameworks for decarbonisation risk; preparing government and national oil company positions for climate negotiations such as COP31; and assessing the long-term legal outlook for upstream investments across both regions — a question that matters equally to host governments and to the counsel advising investors.
For law libraries, the title fills a clear regional gap. Energy and natural resources law collections are rich in European and North American scholarship but thin on legal studies written from the perspective of Middle Eastern and African producers. Its comparative chapters suit teaching in energy law, international climate law and regional legal studies, and it sits naturally alongside the titles in our Energy Law collection, as well as the wider Law and Energy collections.
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Q&A
Is the fossil fuel transition on the formal COP31 agenda?
No. Countries failed to agree on a process at COP30 in Belém, so the transition away from fossil fuels is not a formal negotiating item at COP31 in Antalya; Brazil is expected to release a voluntary roadmap instead.
What was the Santa Marta conference on fossil fuels?
Held in Colombia from 24 to 29 April 2026 and co-hosted by Colombia and the Netherlands, it was the first international conference dedicated to transitioning away from fossil fuels. 57 countries attended, and a second edition is planned in Tuvalu in 2027.
Why do petroleum-producing states need to revise their domestic laws for the energy transition?
Because their revenues, energy supply and licensing regimes are built around long-term oil and gas production. Oniemola argues that domestic petroleum laws must be revisited and prepared to manage the economic, social and legal impacts of decarbonisation.
Does the book compare the Middle East and Africa?
Yes. Separate chapters analyse the legal and policy approaches to the energy transition in each region, alongside the positions both regions take in international climate negotiations.
Where can I buy Petroleum, Energy Transition and Law: The Future of Petroleum in the Middle East and Africa?
Directly from CLNZ Books at clnzbooks.com, with worldwide shipping included, payment by credit card or PayPal, and institutional invoicing available on request.